Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Live · checked FAA national advisories 5 minFAA NAS status 1 minForecast cycle 78 minLightning 1 minWeather observations 4 minFAA surface data <1 minFAA flight data 1 min
What changed: about 67 → 84 expected cancellations since the 4:00 AM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 84 of the 221 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (38%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
What changed: about 97 → 87 expected cancellations since the 4:00 AM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 87 of the 238 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (37%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
What changed: 51% → 61% since the 4:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 221 departures scheduled from O'Hare 3–6 PM Saturday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 61%Horizon 9.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 19 → 90 expected cancellations since the 3:00 AM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 90 of the 217 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (42%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
What changed: about 25 → 102 expected cancellations since the 3:00 AM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 102 of the 234 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (44%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
What changed: 55% → 61% since the 3:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 217 departures scheduled from O'Hare noon–3 PM Saturday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
What changed: 53% → 58% since the 3:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 237 departures scheduled from O'Hare 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 234 departures scheduled from O'Hare 6–9 AM Saturday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 15%. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 237 departures scheduled from O'Hare 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 1:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 31%Horizon 6.5 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
Tailodds’ model gives the 233 departures scheduled from O'Hare 6–9 AM Saturday an average 26% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 15%. From the 1:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 26%Horizon 3.5 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
Tailodds’ model gives the 16 departures scheduled from O'Hare 3–6 AM Saturday an average 22% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 13%. From the 1:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 13 arrivals that landed between 10:22 PM and 11:22 PM CST, 12 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at O'Hare arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
What changed: 41% → 59% since the 8:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 19 departures scheduled from O'Hare midnight–3 AM Saturday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 10:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 20 departures that took off between 8:31 PM and 9:31 PM CST, 19 left at least 15 minutes late. O'Hare typically sees 34% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
What changed: about 43 → 50 expected cancellations since the 6:00 PM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 50 of the 138 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (36%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
FAA-reported departure delays at O'Hare (ORD) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 8:10 PM CST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 8:07 PM CST.
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 14/0116 - 14/0130 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP HAS BEEN CANCELLED.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
FAA-reported departure delays at O'Hare (ORD) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 7:25 PM CST, in 4 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 7:10 PM CST.
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2245 - 14/0400 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: COMMUNICATIONS FAILURE REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER GROUND STOP REMAINS IN EFFECT. AS ENROUTE FACILITIES RECOVER, FLIGHTS WILL BE ALLOWED TO DEPART THROUGH COORDINATION WITH THE AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEM COMMAND CENTER.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
What changed: about 40 → 59 expected cancellations since the 4:00 PM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 59 of the 233 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (25%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
FAA-reported departure delays at O'Hare (ORD) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 5:25 PM CST, in 4 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 5:12 PM CST.
Of 27 arrivals that landed between 3:59 PM and 4:59 PM CST, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at O'Hare arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
FAA-reported departure delays at O'Hare (ORD) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 4:45 PM CST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 4:44 PM CST.
FAA-reported departure delays at O'Hare (ORD) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 4:41 PM CST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 4:32 PM CST.
FAA-reported departure delays at O'Hare (ORD) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 4:00 PM CST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 2:54 PM CST.
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Observed
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Forecast
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