Model lowers O'Hare departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 31%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 2:27 AM CST
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 2
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 44% delay risk for O'Hare departures 9 AM–noon Saturday
Tailodds’ model gives the 238 departures scheduled from O'Hare 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 10:00 PM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target ORD departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 44% over 238 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 10:00 PM CST · 10.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 04:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers O'Hare departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 31%, near normal
What changed: 44% → 31%; calm-weather level 21%
Tailodds’ model gives the 237 departures scheduled from O'Hare 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 1:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target ORD departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 31% over 237 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 1:00 AM CST · 6.5 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 08:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?