Model raises expected cancellations to about 84 among O'Hare departures 3–6 PM Saturday
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 67 cancellations among O'Hare departures 3–6 PM Saturday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 67 of the 223 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (30%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target ORD departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~67.3 over 223 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 4:00 AM CST · 10.1 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 10:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 84 among O'Hare departures 3–6 PM Saturday
What changed: about 67 → 84 expected cancellations since the 4:00 AM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 84 of the 221 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (38%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target ORD departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~84.4 over 221 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM CST · 9.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 11:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?