tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 4 minFAA NAS status <1 minForecast cycle 2 hLightning 1 minWeather observations 1 minFAA surface data 2 minFAA flight data 3 min
Forecast Significant Resolved Delay ORD departures

Model forecasts 46% delay risk for O'Hare departures 6–9 AM Saturday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

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  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 46% delay risk for O'Hare departures 6–9 AM Saturday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 234 departures scheduled from O'Hare 6–9 AM Saturday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 15%. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetORD departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)46% over 234 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 4:00 AM CST · 1.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 10:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Sat Nov 14, 6:01 AM CST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.