tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 2 minFAA NAS status <1 minForecast cycle 1 hLightning <1 minWeather observations <1 minFAA surface data 2 minFAA flight data 2 min
Forecast Major Resolved Cancellation ORD departures

Model raises expected cancellations to about 52 among O'Hare departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
9
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

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  1. Initial Forecast

    Model expects about 19 cancellations among O'Hare departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 19 of the 238 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 PM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetORD departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~19.0 over 238 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 10:00 PM CST · 10.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 04:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises expected cancellations to about 25 among O'Hare departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

    What changed: about 19 → 25 expected cancellations since the 10:00 PM CST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 25 of the 237 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 11:00 PM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetORD departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~25.0 over 237 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 11:00 PM CST · 9.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 05:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. De-escalation Forecast

    Updated model now expects about 23 among O'Hare departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

    What changed: about 25 → 23 expected cancellations since the 11:00 PM CST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 23 of the 236 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 12:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetORD departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~22.8 over 236 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 12:00 AM CST · 8.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 06:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  4. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers expected cancellations to about 15 among O'Hare departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

    What changed: about 23 → 15 expected cancellations since the 12:00 AM CST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 15 of the 237 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetORD departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~14.5 over 237 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 1:00 AM CST · 6.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 08:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  5. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises expected cancellations to about 26 among O'Hare departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

    What changed: about 15 → 26 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM CST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 26 of the 237 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 3:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetORD departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~25.5 over 237 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 3:00 AM CST · 5.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 09:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  6. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises expected cancellations to about 97 among O'Hare departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

    What changed: about 26 → 97 expected cancellations since the 3:00 AM CST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 97 of the 237 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (41%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetORD departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~96.8 over 237 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 4:00 AM CST · 4.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 10:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  7. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers expected cancellations to about 87 among O'Hare departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

    What changed: about 97 → 87 expected cancellations since the 4:00 AM CST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 87 of the 238 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (37%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetORD departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~87.5 over 238 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 5:00 AM CST · 3.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 11:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  8. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers expected cancellations to about 25 among O'Hare departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

    What changed: about 87 → 25 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM CST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 25 of the 237 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 7:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetORD departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~25.1 over 237 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 7:00 AM CST · 0.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 14:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  9. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises expected cancellations to about 52 among O'Hare departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

    What changed: about 25 → 52 expected cancellations since the 7:00 AM CST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 52 of the 236 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (22%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 8:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetORD departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~51.9 over 236 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 8:00 AM CST · 0.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 14:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Sat Nov 14, 9:01 AM CST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.