tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 2 minFAA NAS status 2 minForecast cycle 1 hLightning 2 minWeather observations 6 minFAA surface data 6 minFAA flight data 6 min
Forecast Major Resolved Delay ORD departures

Updated model puts O'Hare departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Saturday at 68%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 56% delay risk for O'Hare departures 9 PM–midnight Saturday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 126 departures scheduled from O'Hare 9 PM–midnight Saturday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 10:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetORD departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)56% over 126 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 10:00 AM CST · 10.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 16:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts O'Hare departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Saturday at 68%

    What changed: 56% → 68% since the 10:00 AM CST forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 126 departures scheduled from O'Hare 9 PM–midnight Saturday an average 68% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetORD departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)68% over 126 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 1:00 PM CST · 6.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 20:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Sat Nov 14, 9:00 PM CST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.