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Forecast Major Resolved Cancellation ORD departures

Model raises expected cancellations to about 27 among O'Hare departures 9 PM–midnight Saturday

Current state: Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started: Sat Nov 14, 9:00 AM CST
Latest activity: Sat Nov 14, 7:25 PM CST
Updates: 6

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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

Initial Forecast Sat Nov 14, 9:56 AM CST

Model expects about 7 cancellations among O'Hare departures 9 PM–midnight Saturday

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 126 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Saturday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 9:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Evidence for this update

Target	ORD departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
Expected cancellations	~7.1 over 126 flights
Forecast cycle · horizon	Sat Nov 14, 9:00 AM CST · 11.1 h ahead
Model version	famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
Source event time	Sat Nov 14, 9:00 AM CST
Ingested	Sat Nov 14, 9:56 AM CST
Published here	Sat Nov 14, 9:56 AM CST (2026-11-14 15:56 UTC)
Sources	Tailodds forecast
Provenance	forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1

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Escalation Forecast Sat Nov 14, 11:56 AM CST

Updated model now expects about 13 among O'Hare departures 9 PM–midnight Saturday

What changed: about 7 → 13 expected cancellations since the 9:00 AM CST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 13 of the 126 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 11:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Evidence for this update

Target	ORD departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
Expected cancellations	~13.1 over 126 flights
Forecast cycle · horizon	Sat Nov 14, 11:00 AM CST · 9.1 h ahead
Model version	famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
Source event time	Sat Nov 14, 11:00 AM CST
Ingested	Sat Nov 14, 11:56 AM CST
Published here	Sat Nov 14, 11:56 AM CST (2026-11-14 17:56 UTC)
Sources	Tailodds forecast
Provenance	forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1

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Escalation Forecast Sat Nov 14, 2:26 PM CST

Model raises expected cancellations to about 21 among O'Hare departures 9 PM–midnight Saturday

What changed: about 13 → 21 expected cancellations since the 11:00 AM CST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 21 of the 126 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Saturday to be cancelled (17%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Evidence for this update

Target	ORD departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
Expected cancellations	~20.8 over 126 flights
Forecast cycle · horizon	Sat Nov 14, 1:00 PM CST · 6.6 h ahead
Model version	famB-sd-v4i
Source event time	Sat Nov 14, 1:00 PM CST
Ingested	Sat Nov 14, 2:26 PM CST
Published here	Sat Nov 14, 2:26 PM CST (2026-11-14 20:26 UTC)
Sources	Tailodds forecast
Provenance	forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1

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Escalation Forecast Sat Nov 14, 3:56 PM CST

Model raises expected cancellations to about 26 among O'Hare departures 9 PM–midnight Saturday

What changed: about 21 → 26 expected cancellations since the 1:00 PM CST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 26 of the 127 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Saturday to be cancelled (20%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 3:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Evidence for this update

Target	ORD departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
Expected cancellations	~25.6 over 127 flights
Forecast cycle · horizon	Sat Nov 14, 3:00 PM CST · 5.1 h ahead
Model version	famB-sd-v4i
Source event time	Sat Nov 14, 3:00 PM CST
Ingested	Sat Nov 14, 3:56 PM CST
Published here	Sat Nov 14, 3:56 PM CST (2026-11-14 21:56 UTC)
Sources	Tailodds forecast
Provenance	forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1

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De-escalation Forecast Sat Nov 14, 5:57 PM CST

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 14 among O'Hare departures 9 PM–midnight Saturday

What changed: about 26 → 14 expected cancellations since the 3:00 PM CST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 14 of the 130 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Saturday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Evidence for this update

Target	ORD departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
Expected cancellations	~14.2 over 130 flights
Forecast cycle · horizon	Sat Nov 14, 5:00 PM CST · 3.0 h ahead
Model version	famB-sd-v4i
Source event time	Sat Nov 14, 5:00 PM CST
Ingested	Sat Nov 14, 5:57 PM CST
Published here	Sat Nov 14, 5:57 PM CST (2026-11-14 23:57 UTC)
Sources	Tailodds forecast
Provenance	forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1

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Escalation Forecast Sat Nov 14, 7:25 PM CST