Model lowers expected cancellations to about 23 among O'Hare departures 6–9 PM Saturday
- Current state
- Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 6
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
-
Initial Forecast
Model expects about 48 cancellations among O'Hare departures 6–9 PM Saturday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 48 of the 225 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (21%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target ORD departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~48.1 over 225 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM CST · 10.6 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 13:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 15 among O'Hare departures 6–9 PM Saturday
What changed: about 48 → 15 expected cancellations since the 6:00 AM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 15 of the 225 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target ORD departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~14.9 over 225 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 7:00 AM CST · 9.6 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 14:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model now expects about 27 among O'Hare departures 6–9 PM Saturday
What changed: about 15 → 27 expected cancellations since the 7:00 AM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 27 of the 225 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target ORD departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~27.0 over 225 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 10:00 AM CST · 7.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 16:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 37 among O'Hare departures 6–9 PM Saturday
What changed: about 27 → 37 expected cancellations since the 10:00 AM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 37 of the 226 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (16%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 12:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target ORD departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~36.7 over 226 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 12:00 PM CST · 5.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 18:55 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 44 among O'Hare departures 6–9 PM Saturday
What changed: about 37 → 44 expected cancellations since the 12:00 PM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 44 of the 226 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (19%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 3:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target ORD departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~43.6 over 226 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 3:00 PM CST · 2.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 21:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 23 among O'Hare departures 6–9 PM Saturday
What changed: about 44 → 23 expected cancellations since the 3:00 PM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 23 of the 226 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target ORD departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~23.5 over 226 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 5:00 PM CST · 0.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 23:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?
Closed Sat Nov 14, 6:01 PM CST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.