tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Major Resolved Delay ORD departures

Model raises O'Hare departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday to 71%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 53% delay risk for O'Hare departures 6–9 PM Saturday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 225 departures scheduled from O'Hare 6–9 PM Saturday an average 53% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 8:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetORD departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)53% over 225 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 8:00 AM CST · 9.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 14:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts O'Hare departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday at 59%

    What changed: 53% → 59% since the 8:00 AM CST forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 225 departures scheduled from O'Hare 6–9 PM Saturday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 9:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetORD departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)59% over 225 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 9:00 AM CST · 8.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 15:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises O'Hare departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday to 71%

    What changed: 59% → 71% since the 9:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 225 departures scheduled from O'Hare 6–9 PM Saturday an average 71% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 11:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetORD departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)71% over 225 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 11:00 AM CST · 6.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 17:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Sat Nov 14, 6:01 PM CST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.