Model raises O'Hare departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday to 72%
- Current state
- Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 5
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 51% delay risk for O'Hare departures 3–6 PM Saturday
Tailodds’ model gives the 223 departures scheduled from O'Hare 3–6 PM Saturday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target ORD departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 51% over 223 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 4:00 AM CST · 10.1 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 10:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises O'Hare departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday to 61%
What changed: 51% → 61% since the 4:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 221 departures scheduled from O'Hare 3–6 PM Saturday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target ORD departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 61% over 221 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM CST · 9.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 11:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Updated model puts O'Hare departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday at 47%
What changed: 61% → 47% since the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 221 departures scheduled from O'Hare 3–6 PM Saturday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target ORD departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 47% over 221 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM CST · 7.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 13:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises O'Hare departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday to 59%
What changed: 47% → 59% since the 6:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 222 departures scheduled from O'Hare 3–6 PM Saturday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 9:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target ORD departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 59% over 222 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 9:00 AM CST · 5.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 15:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises O'Hare departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday to 72%
What changed: 59% → 72% since the 9:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 222 departures scheduled from O'Hare 3–6 PM Saturday an average 72% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 11:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target ORD departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 72% over 222 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 11:00 AM CST · 3.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 17:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?
Closed Sat Nov 14, 3:01 PM CST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.