Model raises expected cancellations to about 90 among O'Hare departures noon–3 PM Saturday
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 11 cancellations among O'Hare departures noon–3 PM Saturday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 218 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target ORD departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~11.1 over 218 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 1:00 AM CST · 9.5 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 08:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model now expects about 19 among O'Hare departures noon–3 PM Saturday
What changed: about 11 → 19 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 19 of the 219 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 3:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target ORD departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~18.8 over 219 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 3:00 AM CST · 8.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 09:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 90 among O'Hare departures noon–3 PM Saturday
What changed: about 19 → 90 expected cancellations since the 3:00 AM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 90 of the 217 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (42%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target ORD departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~90.2 over 217 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 4:00 AM CST · 7.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 10:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?