Model lowers O'Hare departure delay risk 3–6 AM Saturday to 22%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 2:27 AM CST
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 2
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 40% delay risk for O'Hare departures 3–6 AM Saturday
Tailodds’ model gives the 15 departures scheduled from O'Hare 3–6 AM Saturday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 14%. From the 10:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target ORD departures 3–6 AM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 40% over 15 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 10:00 PM CST · 4.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 04:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers O'Hare departure delay risk 3–6 AM Saturday to 22%, near normal
What changed: 40% → 22%; calm-weather level 13%
Tailodds’ model gives the 16 departures scheduled from O'Hare 3–6 AM Saturday an average 22% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 13%. From the 1:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target ORD departures 3–6 AM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 22% over 16 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 1:00 AM CST · 0.5 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 08:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?