tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Major Resolved Cancellation ORD departures

Model raises expected cancellations to about 59 among O'Hare departures 6–9 PM Friday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

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  1. Initial Forecast

    Model expects about 22 cancellations among O'Hare departures 6–9 PM Friday

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 22 of the 235 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 3:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetORD departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~21.5 over 235 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 3:00 PM CST · 2.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 21:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises expected cancellations to about 40 among O'Hare departures 6–9 PM Friday

    What changed: about 22 → 40 expected cancellations since the 3:00 PM CST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 40 of the 236 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (17%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetORD departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~40.5 over 236 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 4:00 PM CST · 1.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 22:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises expected cancellations to about 59 among O'Hare departures 6–9 PM Friday

    What changed: about 40 → 59 expected cancellations since the 4:00 PM CST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 59 of the 233 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (25%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetORD departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~59.2 over 233 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 5:00 PM CST · 0.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 23:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Fri Nov 13, 6:01 PM CST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.