tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 2 minFAA NAS status 2 minForecast cycle 86 minLightning 1 minWeather observations 3 minFAA surface data 2 minFAA flight data 3 min
Forecast Major New Delay ORD departures

Model forecasts 83% delay risk for O'Hare departures 6–9 PM Friday

Current state
New
Started
Latest activity
Updates
1
Create monitor View ORDFlights at ORD

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 83% delay risk for O'Hare departures 6–9 PM Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 235 departures scheduled from O'Hare 6–9 PM Friday an average 83% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 43%. From the 3:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetORD departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)83% over 235 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 3:00 PM CST · 2.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 21:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?