tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 2 minFAA NAS status 2 minForecast cycle 86 minLightning 1 minWeather observations 3 minFAA surface data 2 minFAA flight data 3 min
Forecast Major New Delay ORD departures

Model forecasts 78% delay risk for O'Hare departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

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  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 78% delay risk for O'Hare departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 139 departures scheduled from O'Hare 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 78% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 3:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetORD departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)78% over 139 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 3:00 PM CST · 5.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 21:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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