tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Major Developing Cancellation ORD departures

Model raises expected cancellations to about 24 among O'Hare departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

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  1. Initial Forecast

    Model expects about 14 cancellations among O'Hare departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 14 of the 140 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetORD departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~13.7 over 140 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 4:00 PM CST · 4.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 22:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises expected cancellations to about 24 among O'Hare departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

    What changed: about 14 → 24 expected cancellations since the 4:00 PM CST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 24 of the 140 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (17%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetORD departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~23.7 over 140 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 5:00 PM CST · 3.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 23:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?