tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 3 minFAA NAS status 2 minForecast cycle 58 minLightning 1 minWeather observations 5 minFAA surface data 4 minFAA flight data 4 min
Forecast Major Developing Delay ORD departures

Model raises O'Hare departure delay risk midnight–3 AM Saturday to 59%

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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

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  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 41% delay risk for O'Hare departures midnight–3 AM Saturday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 16 departures scheduled from O'Hare midnight–3 AM Saturday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 8:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetORD departures midnight–3 AM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)41% over 16 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 8:00 PM CST · 3.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 02:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises O'Hare departure delay risk midnight–3 AM Saturday to 59%

    What changed: 41% → 59% since the 8:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 19 departures scheduled from O'Hare midnight–3 AM Saturday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 10:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetORD departures midnight–3 AM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)59% over 19 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 10:00 PM CST · 1.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 04:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?