tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories <1 minFAA NAS status <1 minForecast cycle 1 hLightning <1 minWeather observations 2 minFAA surface data 2 minFAA flight data 3 min
Forecast Significant New Delay ORD departures

Model forecasts 42% delay risk for O'Hare departures 6–9 AM Saturday

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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

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  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 42% delay risk for O'Hare departures 6–9 AM Saturday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 231 departures scheduled from O'Hare 6–9 AM Saturday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 16%. From the 8:00 PM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetORD departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)42% over 231 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 8:00 PM CST · 9.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 02:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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