tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Significant Resolved Delay LAS departures

Model lowers Las Vegas departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Sunday to 74%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

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  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 73% delay risk for Las Vegas departures 9 PM–midnight Sunday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 99 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 9 PM–midnight Sunday an average 73% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 54%. From the 2:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAS departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-01 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)73% over 99 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 1, 2:00 PM PST · 6.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-01 22:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Las Vegas departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Sunday to 79%

    What changed: 73% → 79% since the 2:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 99 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 9 PM–midnight Sunday an average 79% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 51%. From the 5:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAS departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-01 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)79% over 99 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 1, 5:00 PM PST · 2.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-02 02:28 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers Las Vegas departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Sunday to 74%

    What changed: 79% → 74% since the 5:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 99 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 9 PM–midnight Sunday an average 74% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 54%. From the 8:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAS departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-01 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)74% over 99 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 1, 8:00 PM PST · 0.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-02 04:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Sun Nov 1, 9:00 PM PST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.