tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 221 h staleForecast cycle 1 hLightning 221 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 6 minFAA flight data 1 min

FAA NAS status is stale (221 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (221 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay MSP departures

Model lowers Minneapolis departure delay risk noon–3 PM Monday to 31%, near normal

Current state
Resolved at 5:58 AM CST
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 41% delay risk for Minneapolis departures noon–3 PM Monday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 93 departures scheduled from Minneapolis noon–3 PM Monday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 16%. From the 12:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMSP departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)41% over 93 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 2, 12:00 AM CST · 11.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-02 06:59 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers Minneapolis departure delay risk noon–3 PM Monday to 31%, near normal

    What changed: 41% → 31%; calm-weather level 17%

    Tailodds’ model gives the 93 departures scheduled from Minneapolis noon–3 PM Monday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMSP departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)31% over 93 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 2, 5:00 AM CST · 6.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-02 11:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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