tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 222 h staleForecast cycle 73 minLightning 222 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 4 minFAA flight data 6 min

FAA NAS status is stale (222 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (222 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay LAX departures

Model lowers LAX departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Monday to 31%, near normal

Current state
Resolved at 3:58 AM PST
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View LAXFlights at LAX

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 45% delay risk for LAX departures 9 AM–noon Monday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 207 departures scheduled from LAX 9 AM–noon Monday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 1:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAX departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)45% over 207 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 2, 1:00 AM PST · 6.3 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-02 10:42 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers LAX departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Monday to 31%, near normal

    What changed: 45% → 31%; calm-weather level 22%

    Tailodds’ model gives the 207 departures scheduled from LAX 9 AM–noon Monday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 3:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAX departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)31% over 207 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 2, 3:00 AM PST · 5.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-02 11:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?