tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 222 h staleForecast cycle 73 minLightning 222 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 4 minFAA flight data 6 min

FAA NAS status is stale (222 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (222 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay LAX departures

Model lowers LAX departure delay risk noon–3 PM Monday to 37%, near normal

Current state
Resolved at 5:58 AM PST
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View LAXFlights at LAX

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 47% delay risk for LAX departures noon–3 PM Monday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 160 departures scheduled from LAX noon–3 PM Monday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 1:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAX departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)47% over 160 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 2, 1:00 AM PST · 9.3 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-02 10:42 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers LAX departure delay risk noon–3 PM Monday to 37%, near normal

    What changed: 47% → 37%; calm-weather level 29%

    Tailodds’ model gives the 159 departures scheduled from LAX noon–3 PM Monday an average 37% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 4:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAX departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)37% over 159 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 2, 4:00 AM PST · 6.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-02 13:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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