tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 4 minFAA NAS status 2 minForecast cycle 76 minLightning 1 minWeather observations 2 minFAA surface data 6 minFAA flight data 7 min
Forecast Significant Resolved Delay IND departures

Model lowers Indianapolis departure delay risk noon–3 PM Monday to 28%, near normal

Current state
Resolved at 6:58 AM EST
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View INDFlights at IND

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 44% delay risk for Indianapolis departures noon–3 PM Monday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 39 departures scheduled from Indianapolis noon–3 PM Monday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetIND departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)44% over 39 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 2, 4:00 AM EST · 6.3 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-02 10:42 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers Indianapolis departure delay risk noon–3 PM Monday to 28%, near normal

    What changed: 44% → 28%; calm-weather level 18%

    Tailodds’ model gives the 39 departures scheduled from Indianapolis noon–3 PM Monday an average 28% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 18%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetIND departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)28% over 39 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 2, 6:00 AM EST · 5.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-02 11:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?