Model lowers Indianapolis departure delay risk 3–6 PM Monday to 31%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 8:58 AM EST
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 2
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 42% delay risk for Indianapolis departures 3–6 PM Monday
Tailodds’ model gives the 44 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 3–6 PM Monday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target IND departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-02 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 42% over 44 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Mon Nov 2, 4:00 AM EST · 9.3 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-02 10:42 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers Indianapolis departure delay risk 3–6 PM Monday to 31%, near normal
What changed: 42% → 31%; calm-weather level 20%
Tailodds’ model gives the 44 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 3–6 PM Monday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target IND departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-02 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 31% over 44 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Mon Nov 2, 7:00 AM EST · 6.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-02 13:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?