tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 229 h staleForecast cycle 78 minLightning 229 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 4 minFAA flight data 4 min

FAA NAS status is stale (229 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (229 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay MDW departures

Updated model puts Midway departure delay risk 6–9 PM Monday at 65%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View MDWFlights at MDW

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 55% delay risk for Midway departures 6–9 PM Monday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 70 departures scheduled from Midway 6–9 PM Monday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 40%. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMDW departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)55% over 70 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 2, 6:00 AM CST · 10.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-02 13:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts Midway departure delay risk 6–9 PM Monday at 65%

    What changed: 55% → 65% since the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 70 departures scheduled from Midway 6–9 PM Monday an average 65% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 42%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMDW departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)65% over 70 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 2, 1:00 PM CST · 3.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-02 20:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Mon Nov 2, 6:01 PM CST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.