tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 223 h staleForecast cycle 81 minLightning 223 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 5 minFAA flight data 5 min

FAA NAS status is stale (223 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (223 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Major Resolved Delay BWI departures

Model raises BWI departure delay risk 6–9 PM Monday to 67%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View BWIFlights at BWI

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 55% delay risk for BWI departures 6–9 PM Monday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 85 departures scheduled from BWI 6–9 PM Monday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 9:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBWI departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)55% over 85 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 2, 9:00 AM EST · 8.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-02 14:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises BWI departure delay risk 6–9 PM Monday to 67%

    What changed: 55% → 67% since the 9:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 84 departures scheduled from BWI 6–9 PM Monday an average 67% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 40%. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBWI departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)67% over 84 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 2, 5:00 PM EST · 0.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-02 22:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Mon Nov 2, 6:01 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.