Model lowers BWI departure delay risk noon–3 PM Monday to 36%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 8:58 AM EST
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 2
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 45% delay risk for BWI departures noon–3 PM Monday
Tailodds’ model gives the 69 departures scheduled from BWI noon–3 PM Monday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target BWI departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-02 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 45% over 69 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Mon Nov 2, 2:00 AM EST · 8.5 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-02 08:29 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers BWI departure delay risk noon–3 PM Monday to 36%, near normal
What changed: 45% → 36%; calm-weather level 28%
Tailodds’ model gives the 65 departures scheduled from BWI noon–3 PM Monday an average 36% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target BWI departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-02 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 36% over 65 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Mon Nov 2, 7:00 AM EST · 3.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-02 13:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?