Model lowers BWI departure delay risk 3–6 PM Sunday to 38%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 7:56 AM EDT
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 2
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 47% delay risk for BWI departures 3–6 PM Sunday
Tailodds’ model gives the 48 departures scheduled from BWI 3–6 PM Sunday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 5:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target BWI departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-18 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 47% over 48 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Oct 18, 5:00 AM EDT · 9.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-18 09:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers BWI departure delay risk 3–6 PM Sunday to 38%, near normal
What changed: 47% → 38%; calm-weather level 31%
Tailodds’ model gives the 48 departures scheduled from BWI 3–6 PM Sunday an average 38% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 7:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target BWI departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-18 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 38% over 48 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Oct 18, 7:00 AM EDT · 7.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-18 11:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?