tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 223 h staleForecast cycle 87 minLightning 223 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 5 minFAA flight data 6 min

FAA NAS status is stale (223 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (223 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay BWI departures

Model lowers BWI departure delay risk noon–3 PM Sunday to 33%, near normal

Current state
Resolved at 7:56 AM EDT
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View BWIFlights at BWI

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 41% delay risk for BWI departures noon–3 PM Sunday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 40 departures scheduled from BWI noon–3 PM Sunday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 2:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBWI departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-18 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)41% over 40 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Oct 18, 2:00 AM EDT · 9.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-18 06:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers BWI departure delay risk noon–3 PM Sunday to 33%, near normal

    What changed: 41% → 33%; calm-weather level 25%

    Tailodds’ model gives the 40 departures scheduled from BWI noon–3 PM Sunday an average 33% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 7:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBWI departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-18 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)33% over 40 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Oct 18, 7:00 AM EDT · 4.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-18 11:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?