tailodds FORECAST
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Observed Major Resolved Delay BWI departures

BWI departure delays worsen: 78% late in the last hour

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (No usable measurement for 6 h; closed without a recovery report.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View BWIFlights at BWI

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Observed

    BWI departures running late: 47% left 15+ min late in the last hour

    Of 15 departures that took off between 11:40 AM and 12:40 PM EDT, 7 left at least 15 minutes late. BWI typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 12 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

    Evidence for this update
    Measurement window11:40 AM–12:40 PM EDT
    Sample15 flights, 7 late (47%)
    Comparison24% typical · US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 12 PM hour
    Median delay9.0 min
    MethodFAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-17 16:40 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
    Provenanceobserved_ops observed-ops-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Observed

    BWI departure delays worsen: 78% late in the last hour

    What changed: late share 47% → 78%

    Of 18 departures that took off between 5:50 PM and 6:50 PM EDT, 14 left at least 15 minutes late. BWI typically sees 35% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

    Evidence for this update
    Measurement window5:50 PM–6:50 PM EDT
    Sample18 flights, 14 late (78%)
    Comparison35% typical · US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour
    Median delay24.0 min
    MethodFAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-17 22:50 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
    Provenanceobserved_ops observed-ops-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Sun Oct 18, 4:22 AM EDT: No usable measurement for 6 h; closed without a recovery report.