Model lowers BWI departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 35%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 10:17 AM EDT
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 2
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 45% delay risk for BWI departures noon–3 PM Saturday
Tailodds’ model gives the 38 departures scheduled from BWI noon–3 PM Saturday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 7:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target BWI departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-17 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 45% over 38 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Oct 17, 7:00 AM EDT · 3.4 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-17 12:34 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-16.2 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers BWI departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 35%, near normal
What changed: 45% → 35%; calm-weather level 28%
Tailodds’ model gives the 38 departures scheduled from BWI noon–3 PM Saturday an average 35% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 9:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target BWI departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-17 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 35% over 38 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Oct 17, 9:00 AM EDT · 1.7 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-17 14:17 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?