tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 3 minFAA NAS status 1 minForecast cycle 1 hLightning <1 minWeather observations 3 minFAA surface data 3 minFAA flight data 3 min
Forecast Significant Resolved Delay BWI departures

Model forecasts 42% delay risk for BWI departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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Create monitor View BWIFlights at BWI

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

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  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 42% delay risk for BWI departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 50 departures scheduled from BWI 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 7:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBWI departures 9 AM–noon 2026-10-17 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)42% over 50 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Oct 17, 7:00 AM EDT · 0.4 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-17 12:34 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-16.2 · writer template-v1
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Closed Sat Oct 17, 9:00 AM EDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.