tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 222 h staleForecast cycle 88 minLightning 222 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 7 minFAA flight data 7 min

FAA NAS status is stale (222 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (222 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay MIA departures

Model lowers Miami departure delay risk noon–3 PM Tuesday to 41%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 43% delay risk for Miami departures noon–3 PM Tuesday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 125 departures scheduled from Miami noon–3 PM Tuesday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-03 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)43% over 125 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonTue Nov 3, 2:00 AM EST · 8.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-03 08:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Miami departure delay risk noon–3 PM Tuesday to 67%

    What changed: 43% → 67% since the 2:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 125 departures scheduled from Miami noon–3 PM Tuesday an average 67% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-03 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)67% over 125 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonTue Nov 3, 4:00 AM EST · 6.7 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-03 10:21 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers Miami departure delay risk noon–3 PM Tuesday to 41%

    What changed: 67% → 41% since the 4:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 125 departures scheduled from Miami noon–3 PM Tuesday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-03 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)41% over 125 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonTue Nov 3, 5:00 AM EST · 6.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-03 10:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Tue Nov 3, 12:01 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.