Model lowers Hobby departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Tuesday to 26%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 5:58 AM CST
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 2
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
-
Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 40% delay risk for Hobby departures 9 AM–noon Tuesday
Tailodds’ model gives the 55 departures scheduled from Hobby 9 AM–noon Tuesday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 2:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target HOU departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-03 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 40% over 55 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Tue Nov 3, 2:00 AM CST · 6.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-03 08:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers Hobby departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Tuesday to 26%, near normal
What changed: 40% → 26%; calm-weather level 20%
Tailodds’ model gives the 55 departures scheduled from Hobby 9 AM–noon Tuesday an average 26% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target HOU departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-03 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 26% over 55 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Tue Nov 3, 5:00 AM CST · 3.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-03 11:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?