tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 222 h staleForecast cycle 60 minLightning 222 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 6 minFAA flight data 5 min

FAA NAS status is stale (222 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (222 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay PHX departures

Model lowers Phoenix departure delay risk noon–3 PM Tuesday to 36%, near normal

Current state
Resolved at 3:58 AM MST
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View PHXFlights at PHX

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 48% delay risk for Phoenix departures noon–3 PM Tuesday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 172 departures scheduled from Phoenix noon–3 PM Tuesday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 2:00 AM MST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHX departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-03 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)48% over 172 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonTue Nov 3, 2:00 AM MST · 8.7 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-03 10:21 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers Phoenix departure delay risk noon–3 PM Tuesday to 36%, near normal

    What changed: 48% → 36%; calm-weather level 28%

    Tailodds’ model gives the 172 departures scheduled from Phoenix noon–3 PM Tuesday an average 36% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 3:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHX departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-03 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)36% over 172 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonTue Nov 3, 3:00 AM MST · 8.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-03 10:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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