Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Airline analyst: Every MVP detector is airport-wide, so a carrier view would only repeat the airport feed.
Of 19 arrivals that landed between 11:30 PM and 12:30 AM MST, 9 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 20% of arrivals at Phoenix arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 11:30 PM–12:30 AM MSTSample 19 flightsLate 47%Typical 20%
Of 15 departures that took off between 11:14 PM and 12:14 AM MST, 7 left at least 15 minutes late. Phoenix typically sees 19% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 11:14 PM–12:14 AM MSTSample 15 flightsLate 47%Typical 19%
What changed: tight share 32% at worst → 0% now
Of the 13 departures scheduled from Phoenix (PHX) between 11:45 PM and 1:15 AM MST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 12. For 0 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into PHX is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late. The tight share has stayed at or below 12% for 30 minutes across 16 checks, each with current data.
Next 11:45 PM–1:15 AM MSTTight turns 0 of 12Share 0%
What changed: slow share 54% at worst → 4% now
Of 28 aircraft that landed at Phoenix (PHX) between 10:35 AM and 11:35 AM MST and have reached the ramp, 1 took 14 minutes or more from touchdown, at least 10 minutes over the airport’s typical 4 minutes; the median was 3.5 minutes. Usually 6% take that long (this airport, the last 7 days). Measured by Tailodds from FAA surface surveillance; it does not show why. The slow share has stayed at or below 14% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 10 landings and current data.
Landed 10:35 AM–11:35 AM MSTSample 28 arrivalsSlow 4%Usually 6%
Of 16 arrivals that landed between 11:53 PM and 12:53 AM MST, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 20% of arrivals at Phoenix arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 11:53 PM–12:53 AM MSTSample 16 flightsLate 44%Typical 20%
Of 14 departures that took off between 9:17 PM and 10:17 PM MST, 8 left at least 15 minutes late. Phoenix typically sees 34% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 9:17 PM–10:17 PM MSTSample 14 flightsLate 57%Typical 34%
What changed: slow share 31% at worst → 0% now
Of 30 aircraft that landed at Phoenix (PHX) between 10:20 AM and 11:20 AM MST and have reached the ramp, 0 took 14 minutes or more from touchdown, at least 10 minutes over the airport’s typical 4.1 minutes; the median was 3.5 minutes. Usually 6% take that long (this airport, the last 7 days). Measured by Tailodds from FAA surface surveillance; it does not show why. The slow share has stayed at or below 14% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 10 landings and current data.
Landed 10:20 AM–11:20 AM MSTSample 30 arrivalsSlow 0%Usually 6%
What changed: late share 68% at worst → 6% now
Of 17 departures that took off between 5:52 AM and 6:52 AM MST, 1 left at least 15 minutes late. Phoenix typically sees 5% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 15% for 30 minutes across 15 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 5:52 AM–6:52 AM MSTSample 17 flightsLate 6%Typical 5%
What changed: slow share 45% at worst → 3% now
Of 31 aircraft that landed at Phoenix (PHX) between 10:26 AM and 11:26 AM MST and have reached the ramp, 1 took 14 minutes or more from touchdown, at least 10 minutes over the airport’s typical 4.3 minutes; the median was 3.2 minutes. Usually 5% take that long (this airport, the last 7 days). Measured by Tailodds from FAA surface surveillance; it does not show why. The slow share has stayed at or below 13% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 10 landings and current data.
Landed 10:26 AM–11:26 AM MSTSample 31 arrivalsSlow 3%Usually 5%
Of 14 arrivals that landed between 11:56 PM and 12:56 AM MST, 8 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 20% of arrivals at Phoenix arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 11:56 PM–12:56 AM MSTSample 14 flightsLate 57%Typical 20%
Of 14 departures that took off between 10:55 PM and 11:55 PM MST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. Phoenix typically sees 19% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 10:55 PM–11:55 PM MSTSample 14 flightsLate 43%Typical 19%
What changed: late share 69% at worst → 25% now
Of 20 departures that took off between 10:15 PM and 11:15 PM MST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. Phoenix typically sees 31% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 30 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 10:15 PM–11:15 PM MSTSample 20 flightsLate 25%Typical 31%
What changed: tight share 33% at worst → 9% now
Of the 26 departures scheduled from Phoenix (PHX) between 10:18 PM and 11:48 PM MST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 22. For 2 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into PHX is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late. The tight share has stayed at or below 12% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with current data.
Next 10:18 PM–11:48 PM MSTTight turns 2 of 22Share 9%
What changed: late share 50% at worst → 3% now
Of 29 arrivals that landed between 6:21 AM and 7:21 AM MST, 1 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 20% of arrivals at Phoenix arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 6:21 AM–7:21 AM MSTSample 29 flightsLate 3%Typical 20%
What changed: late share 50% at worst → 6% now
Of 16 departures that took off between 5:34 AM and 6:34 AM MST, 1 left at least 15 minutes late. Phoenix typically sees 5% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 15% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 5:34 AM–6:34 AM MSTSample 16 flightsLate 6%Typical 5%
What changed: tight share 29% at worst → 0% now
Of the 18 departures scheduled from Phoenix (PHX) between 11:02 PM and 12:32 AM MST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 13. For 0 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into PHX is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late. The tight share has stayed at or below 12% for 30 minutes across 16 checks, each with current data.
Next 11:02 PM–12:32 AM MSTTight turns 0 of 13Share 0%
What changed: late share 47% at worst → 19% now
Of 48 departures that took off between 11:07 AM and 12:07 PM MST, 9 left at least 15 minutes late. Phoenix typically sees 21% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 11:07 AM–12:07 PM MSTSample 48 flightsLate 19%Typical 21%
What changed: late share 45% at worst → 9% now
Of 34 departures that took off between 12:30 PM and 1:30 PM MST, 3 left at least 15 minutes late. Phoenix typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 12:30 PM–1:30 PM MSTSample 34 flightsLate 9%Typical 24%
What changed: departure delays no longer listed
FAA-reported departure delays at Phoenix (PHX) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 10:54 AM MST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 10:24 AM MST.
What changed: 48% → 36%; calm-weather level 28%
Tailodds’ model gives the 172 departures scheduled from Phoenix noon–3 PM Tuesday an average 36% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 3:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 36%Horizon 8.0 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: late share 81% at worst → 24% now
Of 21 departures that took off between 10:24 PM and 11:24 PM MST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. Phoenix typically sees 31% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 10:24 PM–11:24 PM MSTSample 21 flightsLate 24%Typical 31%
Of 19 arrivals that landed between 7:42 PM and 8:42 PM MST, 8 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 20% of arrivals at Phoenix arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 7:42 PM–8:42 PM MSTSample 19 flightsLate 42%Typical 20%
Tailodds’ model gives the 67 departures scheduled from Phoenix 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 42%. From the 5:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 58%Horizon 2.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 182 departures scheduled from Phoenix 3–6 PM Monday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 37%. From the 11:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 55%Horizon 2.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: departure delays no longer listed
FAA-reported departure delays at Phoenix (PHX) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 12:08 PM MST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 11:59 AM MST.
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