tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 221 h staleForecast cycle 1 hLightning 221 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 5 minFAA flight data 5 min

FAA NAS status is stale (221 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (221 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Cancellation FLL departures

Model lowers expected cancellations among Fort Lauderdale departures 6–9 PM Tuesday to about 2

Current state
Resolved at 3:28 PM EST
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model expects about 6 cancellations among Fort Lauderdale departures 6–9 PM Tuesday

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 61 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Tuesday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetFLL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-03 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~5.7 over 61 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonTue Nov 3, 1:00 PM EST · 4.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-03 18:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers expected cancellations among Fort Lauderdale departures 6–9 PM Tuesday to about 2

    What changed: about 6 → 2

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 61 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Tuesday to be cancelled (3%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetFLL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-03 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~2.0 over 61 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonTue Nov 3, 2:00 PM EST · 2.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-03 20:28 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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