tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 221 h staleForecast cycle 1 hLightning 221 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 3 minFAA flight data 4 min

FAA NAS status is stale (221 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (221 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Major Resolved Delay FLL departures

Model now puts Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 6–9 PM Tuesday at 48%, close to its calm-weather level of 45%

Current state
Resolved at 4:57 PM EST
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 68% delay risk for Fort Lauderdale departures 6–9 PM Tuesday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 61 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 6–9 PM Tuesday an average 68% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 42%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetFLL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-03 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)68% over 61 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonTue Nov 3, 1:00 PM EST · 4.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-03 18:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 6–9 PM Tuesday to 48%

    What changed: 68% → 48% since the 1:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 61 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 6–9 PM Tuesday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 40%. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetFLL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-03 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)48% over 61 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonTue Nov 3, 2:00 PM EST · 2.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-03 20:28 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Resolution Forecast

    Model now puts Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 6–9 PM Tuesday at 48%, close to its calm-weather level of 45%

    What changed: 48% → 48%; calm-weather level 45%

    Tailodds’ model gives the 62 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 6–9 PM Tuesday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 45%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetFLL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-03 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)48% over 62 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonTue Nov 3, 4:00 PM EST · 1.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-03 21:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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