tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 221 h staleForecast cycle 1 hLightning 221 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 5 minFAA flight data 5 min

FAA NAS status is stale (221 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (221 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Major Resolved Delay FLL departures

Updated model puts Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 3–6 PM Tuesday at 61%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View FLLFlights at FLL

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 54% delay risk for Fort Lauderdale departures 3–6 PM Tuesday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 52 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 3–6 PM Tuesday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetFLL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-03 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)54% over 52 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonTue Nov 3, 4:00 AM EST · 9.7 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-03 10:21 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 3–6 PM Tuesday at 61%

    What changed: 54% → 61% since the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 51 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 3–6 PM Tuesday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetFLL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-03 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)61% over 51 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonTue Nov 3, 1:00 PM EST · 1.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-03 18:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Tue Nov 3, 3:00 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.