tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 221 h staleForecast cycle 1 hLightning 221 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 7 minFAA flight data 1 min

FAA NAS status is stale (221 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (221 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Major Resolved Cancellation FLL departures

Model lowers expected cancellations among Fort Lauderdale departures noon–3 PM Tuesday to about 3

Current state
Resolved at 6:58 AM EST
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model expects about 7 cancellations among Fort Lauderdale departures noon–3 PM Tuesday

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 60 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Tuesday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetFLL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-03 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~6.6 over 60 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonTue Nov 3, 4:00 AM EST · 6.7 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-03 10:21 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers expected cancellations to about 3 among Fort Lauderdale departures noon–3 PM Tuesday

    What changed: about 7 → 3 expected cancellations since the 4:00 AM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 60 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Tuesday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetFLL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-03 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~3.5 over 60 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonTue Nov 3, 5:00 AM EST · 6.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-03 10:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers expected cancellations among Fort Lauderdale departures noon–3 PM Tuesday to about 3

    What changed: about 3 → 3

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 60 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Tuesday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetFLL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-03 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~2.7 over 60 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonTue Nov 3, 6:00 AM EST · 5.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-03 11:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?