tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 222 h staleForecast cycle 1 hLightning 222 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 5 minFAA flight data 5 min

FAA NAS status is stale (222 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (222 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Major Resolved Cancellation FLL departures

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 4 among Fort Lauderdale departures 9 AM–noon Tuesday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model expects about 5 cancellations among Fort Lauderdale departures 9 AM–noon Tuesday

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 68 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Tuesday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetFLL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-03 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~5.2 over 68 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 2, 10:00 PM EST · 10.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-03 03:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model now expects about 7 among Fort Lauderdale departures 9 AM–noon Tuesday

    What changed: about 5 → 7 expected cancellations since the 10:00 PM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 70 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Tuesday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetFLL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-03 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~7.3 over 70 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonTue Nov 3, 4:00 AM EST · 3.7 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-03 10:21 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers expected cancellations to about 4 among Fort Lauderdale departures 9 AM–noon Tuesday

    What changed: about 7 → 4 expected cancellations since the 4:00 AM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 4 of the 70 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Tuesday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetFLL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-03 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~3.7 over 70 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonTue Nov 3, 5:00 AM EST · 3.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-03 10:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Tue Nov 3, 9:00 AM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.