tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Significant Resolved Delay FLL departures

Model lowers Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Tuesday to 44%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 45% delay risk for Fort Lauderdale departures 9 AM–noon Tuesday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 68 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 9 AM–noon Tuesday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 18%. From the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetFLL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-03 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)45% over 68 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 2, 10:00 PM EST · 10.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-03 03:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Tuesday at 65%

    What changed: 45% → 65% since the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 70 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 9 AM–noon Tuesday an average 65% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetFLL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-03 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)65% over 70 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonTue Nov 3, 4:00 AM EST · 3.7 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-03 10:21 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Tuesday to 44%

    What changed: 65% → 44% since the 4:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 70 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 9 AM–noon Tuesday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetFLL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-03 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)44% over 70 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonTue Nov 3, 5:00 AM EST · 3.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-03 10:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Tue Nov 3, 9:00 AM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.