tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 221 h staleForecast cycle 1 hLightning 221 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 3 minFAA flight data 4 min

FAA NAS status is stale (221 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (221 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay MIA departures

Model lowers Miami departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Tuesday to 52%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
Create monitor View MIAFlights at MIA

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 50% delay risk for Miami departures 9 PM–midnight Tuesday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 75 departures scheduled from Miami 9 PM–midnight Tuesday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-03 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)50% over 75 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonTue Nov 3, 2:00 PM EST · 5.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-03 20:28 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Miami departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Tuesday to 57%

    What changed: 50% → 57% since the 2:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 75 departures scheduled from Miami 9 PM–midnight Tuesday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-03 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)57% over 75 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonTue Nov 3, 5:00 PM EST · 2.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-03 23:28 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers Miami departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Tuesday to 52%

    What changed: 57% → 52% since the 5:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 75 departures scheduled from Miami 9 PM–midnight Tuesday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 6:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-03 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)52% over 75 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonTue Nov 3, 6:00 PM EST · 2.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-04 00:02 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Tue Nov 3, 9:03 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.