Model lowers SFO departure delay risk noon–3 PM Sunday to 35%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 10:56 AM PDT
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 2
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 44% delay risk for SFO departures noon–3 PM Sunday
Tailodds’ model gives the 115 departures scheduled from SFO noon–3 PM Sunday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 8:00 AM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SFO departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-18 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 44% over 115 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Oct 18, 8:00 AM PDT · 3.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-18 15:55 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers SFO departure delay risk noon–3 PM Sunday to 35%, near normal
What changed: 44% → 35%; calm-weather level 27%
Tailodds’ model gives the 116 departures scheduled from SFO noon–3 PM Sunday an average 35% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 10:00 AM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SFO departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-18 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 35% over 116 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Oct 18, 10:00 AM PDT · 1.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-18 17:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?