Model lowers SFO departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Sunday to 39%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 8:56 PM PDT
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 2
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 46% delay risk for SFO departures 9 PM–midnight Sunday
Tailodds’ model gives the 85 departures scheduled from SFO 9 PM–midnight Sunday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 12:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SFO departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-18 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 46% over 85 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Oct 18, 12:00 PM PDT · 7.5 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-18 20:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers SFO departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Sunday to 39%, near normal
What changed: 46% → 39%; calm-weather level 39%
Tailodds’ model gives the 87 departures scheduled from SFO 9 PM–midnight Sunday an average 39% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 8:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SFO departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-18 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 39% over 87 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Oct 18, 8:00 PM PDT · 0.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-19 03:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?