tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Significant Resolved Delay SFO departures

Model lowers SFO departure delay risk noon–3 PM Monday to 33%, near normal

Current state
Resolved at 7:27 AM PDT
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 41% delay risk for SFO departures noon–3 PM Monday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 126 departures scheduled from SFO noon–3 PM Monday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 6:00 PM PDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSFO departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-19 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)41% over 126 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Oct 18, 6:00 PM PDT · 16.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-19 02:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers SFO departure delay risk noon–3 PM Monday to 33%, near normal

    What changed: 41% → 33%; calm-weather level 27%

    Tailodds’ model gives the 129 departures scheduled from SFO noon–3 PM Monday an average 33% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 6:00 AM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSFO departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-19 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)33% over 129 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Oct 19, 6:00 AM PDT · 4.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-19 14:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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