tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 2 minFAA NAS status 1 minForecast cycle 2 hLightning 2 minWeather observations 1 minFAA surface data 5 minFAA flight data 5 min
Forecast Significant Resolved Delay SFO departures

Model raises SFO departure delay risk 6–9 PM Monday to 52%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View SFOFlights at SFO

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 41% delay risk for SFO departures 6–9 PM Monday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 76 departures scheduled from SFO 6–9 PM Monday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 9:00 AM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSFO departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-19 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)41% over 76 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Oct 19, 9:00 AM PDT · 8.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-19 16:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises SFO departure delay risk 6–9 PM Monday to 52%

    What changed: 41% → 52% since the 9:00 AM PDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 77 departures scheduled from SFO 6–9 PM Monday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 2:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSFO departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-19 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)52% over 77 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Oct 19, 2:00 PM PDT · 3.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-19 21:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Mon Oct 19, 6:00 PM PDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.