Model lowers SFO departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday to 38%
- Current state
- Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 4
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 47% delay risk for SFO departures 9 PM–midnight Monday
Tailodds’ model gives the 78 departures scheduled from SFO 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 12:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SFO departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-19 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 47% over 78 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Mon Oct 19, 12:00 PM PDT · 7.5 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-19 20:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers SFO departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday to 35%
What changed: 47% → 35% since the 12:00 PM PDT forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 78 departures scheduled from SFO 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 35% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 1:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SFO departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-19 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 35% over 78 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Mon Oct 19, 1:00 PM PDT · 7.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-19 20:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises SFO departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday to 49%
What changed: 35% → 49% since the 1:00 PM PDT forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 78 departures scheduled from SFO 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 2:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SFO departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-19 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 49% over 78 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Mon Oct 19, 2:00 PM PDT · 6.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-19 21:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers SFO departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday to 38%
What changed: 49% → 38% since the 2:00 PM PDT forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 80 departures scheduled from SFO 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 38% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 8:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SFO departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-19 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 38% over 80 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Mon Oct 19, 8:00 PM PDT · 0.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-20 03:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?
Closed Mon Oct 19, 9:00 PM PDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.