tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 3 minFAA NAS status <1 minForecast cycle 2 hLightning <1 minWeather observations 4 minFAA surface data 1 minFAA flight data 1 min
Forecast Significant Resolved Delay SFO departures

Model raises SFO departure delay risk 3–6 PM Monday to 50%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 52% delay risk for SFO departures 3–6 PM Monday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 91 departures scheduled from SFO 3–6 PM Monday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 12:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSFO departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-19 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)52% over 91 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Oct 19, 12:00 PM PDT · 1.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-19 20:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers SFO departure delay risk 3–6 PM Monday to 39%

    What changed: 52% → 39% since the 12:00 PM PDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 91 departures scheduled from SFO 3–6 PM Monday an average 39% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 1:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSFO departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-19 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)39% over 91 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Oct 19, 1:00 PM PDT · 1.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-19 20:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises SFO departure delay risk 3–6 PM Monday to 50%

    What changed: 39% → 50% since the 1:00 PM PDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 92 departures scheduled from SFO 3–6 PM Monday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 2:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSFO departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-19 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)50% over 92 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Oct 19, 2:00 PM PDT · 0.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-19 21:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Mon Oct 19, 3:02 PM PDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.