tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 221 h staleForecast cycle 1 hLightning 221 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 3 minFAA flight data 4 min

FAA NAS status is stale (221 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (221 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay FLL departures

Model lowers Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk noon–3 PM Wednesday to 37%, near normal

Current state
Resolved at 9:56 AM EST
Started
Latest activity
Updates
4
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 42% delay risk for Fort Lauderdale departures noon–3 PM Wednesday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 61 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale noon–3 PM Wednesday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetFLL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-04 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)42% over 61 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonWed Nov 4, 1:00 AM EST · 10.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-04 06:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk noon–3 PM Wednesday at 53%

    What changed: 42% → 53% since the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 61 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale noon–3 PM Wednesday an average 53% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetFLL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-04 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)53% over 61 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonWed Nov 4, 5:00 AM EST · 6.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-04 10:55 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk noon–3 PM Wednesday to 39%

    What changed: 53% → 39% since the 5:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 61 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale noon–3 PM Wednesday an average 39% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetFLL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-04 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)39% over 61 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonWed Nov 4, 7:00 AM EST · 3.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-04 13:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  4. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk noon–3 PM Wednesday to 37%, near normal

    What changed: 39% → 37%; calm-weather level 31%

    Tailodds’ model gives the 61 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale noon–3 PM Wednesday an average 37% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 9:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetFLL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-04 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)37% over 61 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonWed Nov 4, 9:00 AM EST · 2.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-04 14:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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